Lake Maracaibo
Recurrent Neural Networks with Linear Structures for Electricity Price Forecasting
Amor, Souhir Ben, Ziel, Florian
We present a novel recurrent neural network architecture designed explicitly for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, aimed at improving short-term decision-making and operational management in energy systems. Our combined forecasting model embeds linear structures, such as expert models and Kalman filters, into recurrent networks, enabling efficient computation and enhanced interpretability. The design leverages the strengths of both linear and non-linear model structures, allowing it to capture all relevant stylised price characteristics in power markets, including calendar and autoregressive effects, as well as influences from load, renewable energy, and related fuel and carbon markets. For empirical testing, we use hourly data from the largest European electricity market spanning 2018 to 2025 in a comprehensive forecasting study, comparing our model against state-of-the-art approaches, particularly high-dimensional linear and neural network models. The proposed model achieves approximately 12% higher accuracy than leading benchmarks. We evaluate the contributions of the interpretable model components and conclude on the impact of combining linear and non-linear structures.
- North America > Trinidad and Tobago > Trinidad > Arima > Arima (0.05)
- Europe > Germany (0.04)
- Asia > China (0.04)
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- Research Report > New Finding (1.00)
- Research Report > Experimental Study (0.93)
Nonparametric Generative Modeling with Conditional Sliced-Wasserstein Flows
Du, Chao, Li, Tianbo, Pang, Tianyu, Yan, Shuicheng, Lin, Min
Sliced-Wasserstein Flow (SWF) is a promising approach to nonparametric generative modeling but has not been widely adopted due to its suboptimal generative quality and lack of conditional modeling capabilities. In this work, we make two major contributions to bridging this gap. First, based on a pleasant observation that (under certain conditions) the SWF of joint distributions coincides with those of conditional distributions, we propose Conditional Sliced-Wasserstein Flow (CSWF), a simple yet effective extension of SWF that enables nonparametric conditional modeling. Second, we introduce appropriate inductive biases of images into SWF with two techniques inspired by local connectivity and multiscale representation in vision research, which greatly improve the efficiency and quality of modeling images. With all the improvements, we achieve generative performance comparable with many deep parametric generative models on both conditional and unconditional tasks in a purely nonparametric fashion, demonstrating its great potential.
- Asia > Middle East > Jordan (0.04)
- South America > Venezuela > Lake Maracaibo (0.04)
- North America > United States > Hawaii > Honolulu County > Honolulu (0.04)
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- Information Technology > Sensing and Signal Processing > Image Processing (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Vision (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Representation & Reasoning (1.00)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Neural Networks > Deep Learning (0.46)
The Venezuelans Trying to Escape Their Country Through Video Game Grunt Work
On a recent afternoon in Maracaibo, Venezuela, Alexander Marinez, who has short-cropped black hair and three-to-four-day stubble, sat in front of his computer tracking herbiboars in the mushroom forests on Fossil Island. He pressed down on his glowing mouse, the newest addition to his otherwise timeworn gaming setup. The pixelated character on his computer screen followed the tracks of a hedgehoglike creature with triangular tusks and herbs growing out of its back. Outside Marinez's one-story house, the sun bore down on the dirt road. His home lies about six miles away from the strait that connects the Caribbean Sea with Lake Maracaibo, one of the world's richest sources of oil. The character inspected a tunnel. Suddenly, the herbiboar appeared, and the character attacked, stunning it.
- South America > Venezuela > Zulia State > Maracaibo (0.46)
- Atlantic Ocean > Caribbean Sea (0.25)
- South America > Venezuela > Lake Maracaibo (0.24)
- (13 more...)
- Leisure & Entertainment > Games > Computer Games (1.00)
- Government (1.00)
- Banking & Finance (1.00)
- Information Technology > Communications (0.95)
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Games (0.51)